2023 Mock Draft

Round 1

1) Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 

2) Indianapolis Colts (from Houston): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

3) Arizona Cardinals: Will Anderson Jr, DE, Alabama

4) Houston Texans (from Indianapolis): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

5) Tennessee Titans (from Seattle): CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State

6) Detroit Lions: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

7) Las Vegas Raiders: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

8) Atlanta Falcons: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

9) Chicago Bears: Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State

10) Philadelphia Eagles: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

11) Seattle Seahawks (from Tennessee): Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

12) Houston Texans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

13) Green Bay Packers: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

14) New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

15) New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern

16) Washington Commanders: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

18) Detroit Lions: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will McDonald IV, OLB, Iowa State

20) Seattle Seahawks: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

21) Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

22) Baltimore Ravens: Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State

23) Minnesota Vikings: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

24) Jacksonville Jaguars: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

25) New York Giants: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

26) Dallas Cowboys: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

27) Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

28) Cincinnati Bengals: O'Cyrus Torrence, G, Florida

29) New Orleans Saints: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

30) Philadelphia Eagles: Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson

31) Kansas City Chiefs: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

How the Jets Can Create Another Top Ten Pick

Let's start with some truisms. 

   The Jets are set to enter the 2022 Draft process with four of the top 38 picks: 4th overall, 10th, 35th, and 38th.

   The Jets need more than one player to right this ship. 

   The Jets still believe in Zach Wilson. 

   Every year we see teams pay a QB surcharge in the draft. That is, they are willing to pay above market price for the right to select the QB they want even if the draft pick value chart would say otherwise.

   This is a year without consensus at the top of the draft. Is the 4^th ranked prospect all that different from the 20^th ranked prospect?

   The Jets should use all of this to their advantage and maximize the best asset we currently have: the 4^th pick. How should they go about this? 

I think the following series of trades would best maximize value in this upcoming draft:

Trade 1: NYJ sends Carolina the 4^th (QB Kenny Pickett) and 117^th overall picks in the 2022 Draft in exchange for the 6^th pick in the 2022 Draft and Carolina's 2^nd round pick in 2023. 

Why do the Jets do this: They pick up a second rounder that figures to be in the top half of the round.  They let Carolina jump ahead of them to take a player the Jets aren't even considering.

Why do the Panthers do this: Matt Rhule is trying to save his job. He has identified Pickett as his guy and drafting a QB buys him time. It also gets the Panthers a fourth round pick this year. After the 6^th overall pick, they are not scheduled to pick again until 137th. This gets them capital now. There will be a new regime next year if this fails.

Value created according to value chart if we assume 2023 pick will be 55^th overall: +78 points (equivalent to the 108th overall pick). 

The pick will likely be higher than 55^th but we need to apply a discount because the pick is a year away so 55^th seems fair for estimation purposes. Nitpick if you'd like. 

 

Trade 2: NYJ sends Seattle the 6^th (QB Malik Willis) and 146^th overall picks in exchange for the 9^th and 40^th overall picks. 

Why do the Jets do this: They add another second rounder giving them five of the top 40 picks in the draft. Again, they let a team jump in front of them for a player the Jets have no interest in anyway.
Why do the Seahawks do this: Similar to the Panthers, they have identified the QB they want and pay the price to lock him in. They acquired these two picks as part of the Russell Wilson deal (in addition to another first and second rounder next year. To spin Wilson into a young QB with enormous upside plus still have those other picks next year (and Noah Fant) looks like a win. 

Value created according to value chart: +219 points (equivalent to the 74^th overall pick)

Trade 3: NYJ trade the 9^th and 111th overall picks to Minnesota in exchange for the 12th and 46^th overall picks. 

Why do the Jets do this: They add another second rounder giving them six of the top 46 picks in the draft. This would be the first trade down where the Jets would lose a player from their board they seemingly want, but picking up that second rounder is worth it. Also, they could use the 10th pick on the cornerback Minnesota doesn't take assuming both are still on the board at 9.
Why do the Vikings do this: They have identified a cornerback (Sauce Garner or Derek Stingley) that they think is the best in the class.

Value created according to value chart: +218 (equivalent to the 75^th overall pick)

Trade 4: NYJ trade the 12^th (QB Desmond Ridder) and 163^rd overall picks to Pittsburgh in exchange for the 20^th and 52^nd overall picks in the 2022 Draft and Pittsburgh's 2^nd round pick in 2023. 

Why do the Jets do this: More draft capital. They now own seven of the top 52 picks and have two extra seconds next year.
Why do the Steelers do this: They have identified Desmond Ridder as their guy.

Value created according to value chart if we assume 2023 pick will be 60^th overall: +306 (equivalent to the 59^th overall pick)

Again, the pick will likely be higher than 60^th but we need to apply a discount because the pick is a year away so 60^th seems fair for estimation purposes. Continue to nitpick. 

Trade 5: NYJ trade the 20^th (QB Matt Corral) overall pick to Detroit in exchange for the 32^nd and 34^th overall picks. 

Why do the Jets do this: Even more draft capital. They now own eight of the top 52 picks and have two extra seconds next year.
Why do the Lions do this: Matt Corral is their guy.

Value created according to value chart: +300 (equivalent to the 60^th overall pick)

Trade 6: NYJ trade the 32^nd (QB Sam Howell) overall pick to Atlanta in exchange for the 43^rd and 58^th overall picks. 

Why do the Jets do this: Moar draffft CaPiTAalll!
Why do the Falcons do this: Sam Howell is their guy and they get him for five years as a first round pick.

Value created according to value chart: +200 (equivalent to the 78^th overall pick)

Here's the final scorecard:

Out: 4, 111, 117, 146, 163

In: 34, 40, 43, 46, 52, 58, Carolina's 2023 second rounder, Pittsburgh's 2023 second rounder

Value created according to value chart: +1,321 (equivalent to the 10th overall pick)

In addition to the picks they already own, the Jets pick at 10, 34, 35, 38, 40, 43, 46, 52, 58, and 69. 10 of the top 69 picks!?!? Yes, please. 

Let's take this dream to completion. Here's what I would do with the picks:

10- DB Kyle Hamilton or Sauce Gardner. In addition to Pickett, Willis, and Stingley, I think Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Evan Neal, and Ikem Ekwonu will certainly be gone by the 10th pick. That means that one of Hamilton or Sauce will be available. If I'm the Jets I'm hoping it's Sauce but I would "settle" for the top safety in the class. There's great depth at wide receiver in this class so we wait on that until the top of Round 2.

34- C Tyler Linderbaum 

35- DE George Karlaftis 

38- WR George Pickens

40- DE Arnold Ebiketie

43- S Lewis Cine or Daxton Hill if Sauce is the pick at 10 or CB Roger McCreary if it's Hamilton at 10.

46- DE David Obajo. Having all of these extra second rounders allows the Jets to take a shot on Obajo who won't contribute at all until 2023.

52- WR Jalen Tolbert

58- LB Leo Chenal

69- CB Tariq Woolen

Mock Draft & Prop Bets

It's been a full year since there was any activity here at TSB. If you are reading this, thank you times a million for your loyalty.

First, let's get a few things out of the way related to the Jets. 

1. Thank God Gase is gone.

2. I've spent the last five months talking myself into Zach Wilson being better than Trevor Lawrence. I'm almost there.

3. My dream scenario would be Wilson at 2, Ole Miss WR Elijah Moore or Minnesota WR Rashod Bateman at 23, and Oklahoma State OT Teven Jenkins at 34. Prayers Up.

Next, let's bang out a mock trade:

Dallas trades Amari Cooper and a fourth round pick to Baltimore for the 31st pick. This gives the Ravens the #1 WR they have coveted for years. It also lets the Cowboys take the best WR available at #10 (Davonta Smith?) and then focus on cornerback late in the first round where the value would be much more reasonable. 

It also wouldn't shock me if the Raiders traded up for Trey Lance or Justin Fields if they fell towards the teens.

First Round Mock

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence

2. New York Jets - Zach Wilson

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans) - Trey Lance

4. Atlanta Falcons - Kyle Pitts

5. Cincinnati Bengals - Ja'Marr Chase

6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia Eagles) - Jaylen Waddle

7. Detroit Lions - Justin Fields

8. Carolina Panthers - Penei Sewell

9. Denver Broncos - Micah Parsons (seems like an ovious trade down spot for a team trying to get Mac Jones)

10. Dallas Cowboys - Davonta Smith

11. New York Giants - Rashawn Slater

12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins via San Francisco 49ers) - Patrick Surtain II

13. Los Angeles Chargers - Christian Darrisaw

14. Minnesota Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker

15. New England Patriots - Rashod Bateman

16. Arizona Cardinals - Jaycee Horn

17. Las Vegas Raiders - Trevon Moehrig

18. Miami Dolphins - Teven Jenkins

19. Washington Football Team - Christian Barmore

20. Chicago Bears - Mac Jones 

21. Indianapolis Colts - Kwity Paye

22. Tennessee Titans - Kadarius Toney

23. New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks) - Elijah Moore

24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jaelan Phillips

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - Walker Little

26. Cleveland Browns - Jamin Davis

27. Baltimore Ravens - Dillon Radunz

28. New Orleans Saints - Greg Newsome II

29. Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore

30. Buffalo Bills - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

31. Dallas Cowboys (from Kansas City Chiefs via Baltimore Ravens) - Caleb Farley

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Azeez Ojulari

Prop Bets:

Trey Lance at #3: 3/1, 2 units

Justin Fields at #3: 5/1, 2 units

Steelers to take DL with first pick: 20/1, 2 units

Javonte Williams drafted before Travis Etienne: +157, 3 units

Christian Barmore as first defensive lineman drafted: 4/1, 3 units

NFL Draft: Jets Pick Happiness Scale

Here's my list of players that would make me happiest if the Jets took them in Round 1:

1. Tristan Wirfs
2. Jedrick Wills, Jr
3. Andrew Thomas
4. CJ Henderson ($$$$$)
5. CeeDee Lamb
6. Jerry Jeudy

NFL Draft: Crazy Ideas That Ya Heard Here First

The Draft is just two days away! Sports!?!? Finally! I don't have time to dive into each of these scenarios but ya heard it here first:

1. The Dolphins don't like any of the QBs at the top of this draft. They'll take three non-QBs in Round 1.

2. The 49ers - who everyone expects to trade back - will actually trade UP in the first round.

3. The Chargers will use the 6th pick on an offensive lineman or wide receiver. This team is very good already. Let's play for 2020. Ewing Theory with Phil Rivers?

4. Dave Gettleman will nail this draft. Nah, nevermind.

5. Tampa Bay will trade up for Justin Jefferson to play the slot? That would be an incredible group of receivers - Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and JJ? Yes, please.

6. Only two quarterbacks will get taken in Round 1. Gimme Joe and Tua.

7. The Jets are going to trade Jamal Adams. And if the return is the Cowboys 1st (17th overall) and 2nd (49) picks, I will talk myself into liking the deal.

[Updated on April 20] NFL Draft Prop Bets

Updated on April 20

As I mentioned in the mock draft, there is no way that anyone has a firm hold on what is going to happen in this draft. There are going to be big surprises early and often. Let's try to take advantage with these mostly longshot props:

Justin Jefferson first WR taken, 50 units/to win 2000 - At 40/1 (it's actually up at 50/1 at many books), I'll take the chance that someone prefers production over upside.

Jets take CJ Henderson with their first pick, 50 units/1875 - My rationale is laid out in the mock.

Harrison Bryant first TE taken, 25 units/500 - This is probably my favorite value on the board. The way I look at it, all of these tight ends are in the same third round-ish grouping. It may not happen in this draft, but if we re-did the draft 20 times, this guy is the first TE taken on more than occasion. You can't convince me otherwise. Love the value.

Antoine Winfield first S taken, 50 units/400 - Again, for guys "ranked" within 10 spots in the major publications, why is McKinney so much of a bigger favorite than Winfield (or even Delpit)?

Alabama players taken in first round under 5.5, 62 units/49 - Wills, Tua, Jeudy, and Ruggs are locks, but I'm not convinced that any other Bama players go in round 1. This number could get up to 7 so high risk of looking very dumb here but I'm taking my chances.

Jeff Okudah taken with third pick, 25 units/87 - I made this bet right when it hit the board, and I sort of regret it already. Lions have to trade down out of this spot... but if they don't I think Okudah is their guy.

Eagles take someone NOT named Jefferson, Ruggs, Mims, Reagor, Higgins, Jeudy, Lamb, McKinney, Delpit, Queen, Ruiz, Murray, Henderson, Gladney, 25 units/250 - Gimme Antoine Winfield here as the first safety off the board, and I win two bets! Let's go. (Or Brandon Aiyuk works too).

Chase Young pick over 2.5, 35 units/385: There has to be a one on 10 chance that a team trades up to the second pick to grab a QB, right?

Ohio State players taken in first round over 2.5, 25 units/112: Chase Young and Okudah are locks. Then I'm hoping one of JK Dobbins, Damon Arnette, Jonah Jackson, or Malik Harrison to go late on Day 1. Again, this draft will have surprises everywhere. I'm just hoping one of them is wearing a Buckeye.


Keep checking back for more picks.

NFL Mock Draft 1.0

I love me some mock drafts. Usually, I can't get enough of them. The issue this year is that they all look the same, and nothing has changed in months. I cannot believe that everyone knew months ago how this draft would play out. My guess is that we are in for a number of surprises. Let's see if I can nail a couple of them.

Round 1

1. CINCINNATI BENGALS: QB JOE BURROW, LSU - No surprises just yet.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: DE CHASE YOUNG, OHIO STATE - Still waiting...

3. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (via Detroit): QB TUA TAGOVAILOA, ALABAMA - Let's go! It will cost them the 6th and 37th picks this year and next year's first rounder, but there are so many reasons this deal makes sense for the Chargers (they need fans, Tua is a stud, he won't be there at 6, they will be better next year so the first rounder won't be as painful). Pay the price. Go get Tua.

4. NEW YORK GIANTS: LB ISAIAH SIMMONS, CLEMSON - Gettleman has started to address the linebacking corps, but Simmons is a freak. Everyone else has o-line here.

5. MIAMI DOLPHINS: QB JUSTIN HERBERT, OREGON

6. DETROIT LIONS (via LAC): CB JEFFREY OKUDAH, OHIO STATE - Love it when a trade down works to perfection. Detroit has to be considering Okudah at 3. Now they get him and a suite of picks.

7. MIAMI DOLPHINS (via Carolina): OT MEKHI BECTON, LOUISVILLE - Traid alert! The Dolphins got their QB at 5; now they protect him for years to come. The Panthers get picks 18 and 26 for their troubles.

8. ARIZONA CARDINALS: OT TRISTAN WIRFS, IOWA

9. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (via Jacksonville): OT JEDRICK WILLS, ALABAMA - The Bradys move up to protect their new QB in exchange for picks 14 and 45.

10. CLEVELAND BROWNS: OT ANDREW THOMAS, GEORGIA - The run of stud offensive linemen comes to a finish here.

11. NEW YORK JETS: CB C.J. HENDERSON, FLORIDA - The vast majority of mock drafts have slotted a wide receiver to the Jets here at 11. I don't disagree that it's a position of need; my issue is that this is one of the deepest wideout groups we have seen in years. There will be plenty of value in later rounds to address that need. It's a similar story with offensive linemen. So, let's give the Jets a player that is at the top of the class in a shallow position group that fills a position of need. Then the Jets can go OL (Tyler Biadasz in Round 2?) and WR (Michael Pittman or Tyler Johnson in Round 3?) later in the draft. In a dream scenario, the Jets would trade down a few slots and pick up some more assets and still nab Henderson.

12. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: QB JORDAN LOVE, UTAH STATE - Mayock and Gruden have been suspiciously quiet leading up to this draft. I think something is brewing.

13. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (via Indianapolis): WR JUSTIN JEFFERSON, LSU - My biggest surprise of the round would be this JJ as the first wide receiver off the board. This could end up looking really bad when he ends up as the sixth WR taken but you can find 55-1 odds out there that he will be the first WR taken.

14. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via Tampa Bay): DT DERRICK BROWN, AUBURN - Brown is in play for the Jags at 9. Getting him here plus the 45th pick would be a coup.

15. DENVER BRONCOS: WR JERRY JEUDY, ALABAMA - John Elway would be doing backflips if Jeudy drops to 15.

16. ATLANTA FALCONS: DE K’LAVON CHAISSON, LSU

17. DALLAS COWBOYS: WR CEEDEE LAMB, OKLAHOMA - Jerry Jones will not be able to pass on this physical freak even if WR isn't the biggest position of need.

18. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Pittsburgh via Miami): DT JAVON KINLAW, SOUTH CAROLINA

19. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (via Chicago): WR HENRY RUGGS, ALABAMA - Are we sure this guy isn't just John Ross 2.0? He had 40 catches last year. 209 players had more. I know this isn't a quantity contest but this guy should have been way more dominant with this skill set than just having 40 catches.

20. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (via LAR): CB KRISTIAN FULTON, LSU

21. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: LB PATRICK QUEEN, LSU - Every mock I have seen has Philly going WR here (usually Justin Jefferson). I'm not buying it.

22. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (via Buffalo): CB TREVON DIGGS, ALABAMA - No pick in the first round would make me as happy as the Vikings using the 22nd selection - which they acquired in exchange for Stefon Diggs - on his brother. [Folds hands in prayer]

23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: C CESAR RUIZ, MICHIGAN [Insert boring 10x All-Pro here]

24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: WR DENZEL MIMS, BAYLOR - Drew Brees can't play forever so let's get him some weapons while he's here.

25. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: CB JAYLON JOHNSON, UTAH - Quick way to revamp the secondary.

26. CAROLINA PANTHERS (via Miami): S ANTOINE WINFIELD JR, MINNESOTA - Another surprise here with Winfield being the first safety off the board.

27. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: OT AUSTIN JACKSON, USC

28. BALTIMORE RAVENS: OT JOSH JONES, HOUSTON

29. TENNESSEE TITANS: DE A.J. EPENESA, IOWA

30. GREEN BAY PACKERS: WR BRANDON AIYUK, ARIZONA STATE

31. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: DE YETUR GROSS-MATOS, PENN STATE

32. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: S XAVIER MCKINNEY, ALABAMA

Fixing the Mets in 10 Steps

This season has not gone as planned for the Mets. It happens. As Mets fans, we are more used to this than most, but the situation is certainly salvageable. Here are the 10 moves I would make with an eye towards 2020 and beyond.

1. Zack Wheeler and Dom Smith for Royce Lewis: Wheeler is a free agent after the season. Please don’t sign him to an extension now when we can get a prospect for him (a better one if we include Dom) and then re-sign him in the offseason. Dom Smith rakes but has no position with Pete Alonso in town. Sending him to the 1B-needy Twins along with Wheeler, who would be a postseason starter, makes sense from both sides. Lewis is hitting .243 in A-ball but he’s barely two years removed from being the #1 overall pick in the draft.

2. Jeurys Familia for Rusney Castillo and a C level prospect: The Mets take on money in this deal short term to clear it later. Familia is due about $2m the rest of the year while Castillo is owed just over $4m. Then next year, Castillo is dues about $3m more than Familia (14m vs 11m) but Castillo then comes off the books after the 2020 season while Familia is still owed another $11m. This move gets Castillo out of non-40-man purgatory. Let’s give him one more shot these last two months to see if he can be the starting RF in 2020.

3. Steven Matz for Josh James and B level prospect: Matz is getting expensive, and are we sure he can be relied upon? The Astros work miracles on their staff (see Miley, Wade). The Mets should try James as the closer for the next two months because…

4. Edwin Diaz and Jed Lowrie for Keibert Ruiz and Dustin May. I’m not rehashing the Diaz/Cano/Kelenic/Dunn deal here. Too painful, but let’s make the most of the situation. Ruiz is a big time catching prospect and May has mid-rotation stuff. And dumping the $11m owed to Lowrie gives us some money to spend in the offseason.

5. Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas for any C level prospect with a remotely famous last name. Does Bartolo Colon have a kid in the minors by now? If not, what about Aaron Ashby (Brewers, nephew of Andy) or Cory Abbott (Cubs, no relation to Jim) or Edmundo Sosa (Cards, no relation to Sammy) or Daulton Jefferies (A’s, no relation to Gregg) or Jose Soriano (Angels, no relation to Alfosno) Jhailyn Ortiz (Phillies, no relation to David) or you get the point…. Cash saving + lotto ticket seems like a fair return for these vets.

6. Thor and Cano for Jacoby Ellsbury's corpse and Didi Gregorious: Trading Thor is crushing, but this Cano contract (4 years, $96m left after this year) is an albatross. Maybe he will be motivated in the Bronx. Ellsbury’s contract is currently being paid by insurance but only has another year on it anyway. Like Castillo and Yo Cespedes, his deal will expire after 2020. Didi is a free agent after this year but would be a perfect addition to this team long term allowing Rosario to move to CF.

7. Juan Lagares to Colorado for a C level prospect. The Rocks could actually use Lagares’ defense in the vast expanses of Coors.

8. Wilson Ramos and Justin Wilson for Mason Denaburg. Straight forward deal. Two useful pieces for a B level rospect.

Offseason moves

9. Sign Gerrit Cole

10. Sign Anthony Rendon

2020 Lineup / Rotation

C: Nido/RUIZ

1B: Alonso

2B: McNeil

3B: RENDON

SS: DIDI

LF: Conforto

CF: Rosario

RF: R. Castillo

1 deGrom

2 COLE

3 MAY

4 TBD (Kay?)

5 TBD

Cl JAMES

Mapping Out a Dream Draft Scenario for the Jets

1. Trade #3 to Washington for #15, #46, and Washington’s 2020 1^st Rounder

2. Trade Pick #15 and #46 to Houston for #23 and Jadeveon Clowney

3. Use their picks in the following ways-

Pick 23: Garrett Bradbury, OL, North Carolina State

Pick 68: Greg Little, OL, Ole Miss
Pick 93: Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State
Pick 105: Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
Pick 196: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma
Pick 217. N.Y. Jets: Mark Fields, CB, Clemson

Come out of the weekend with two starting offensive linemen, an elite edge rusher, two high upside lotto tickets in Harmon and Ximines, and Washington’s 2020 first rounder. That seems like a W.

NFL Draft Thoughts/Predictions

A bunch of random draft thoughts and predictions:

-This is a bad draft class overall, and it starts with the subpar quarterbacks. Daniel Jones is easily the most overrated, but Kyler Murray will play in fewer than 2.5 Pro Bowls in his career...which will be the most of any quarterback taken tomorrow night.

-Daniel Jones is Ryan Nassib 2.0.

-The offensive skill position players are also underwhelming. Maybe that's why everyone wants to trade down.

-In three of the last four drafts, the Jets have taken players that many argued were the best in the class despite not having the top pick (2015: Leonard Williams, 6th overall; 2017: Jamal Adams, 6th overall; 2018: Sam Darnold: 3rd overall). Could history repeat itself with Nick Bosa falling to #3? I'm not counting on it, but stranger things have happened. I'm also hoping Greg Little falls to the top of the third round so the Jets can pounce.

-I would love to see Devin Bush slide to #20 so he can replace Ryan Shazier in Pittsburgh.

-If the Giants take Dwayne Haskins at #6, they are the big winners of the draft process because they have thrown everyone off that scent.

-Does taking a tight end in the top 10 ever work out? Nope. That's why I have the Bills taking Hockenson at #9.

-I don't get all of the Josh Jacobs hype. He didn't start until the second half of his junior year, and now we are convinced he's the no-doubt best running back in this class? I'll take shares of Trayveon Williams 60 picks later.

-I also don't understand why Greedy Williams is dropping like a rock. He's 6'2" and flies. Are we really worried that he's not a great run defender?

-I hope I'm wrong because I love athletic freaks, but DK Metcalf has bust written all over him. Workout wonders don't always translate to on-field success. He has me worried. I'll take shares of Kelvin Harmon two rounds later.

-My favorite fits for player/team: Devin White/Lions and Brian Burns/Falcons.

-My favorite prop bet: Parris Campbell to be first wide receiver selected at 40-1. Worth a few sheckels.

-Three guys that I have not seen in any first round mocks that might sneak into the top 32 (aside from Parris Campbell): QB Ryan Finley, DB Nasir Adderley, and OL Chris Lindstrom